A Dynasty At A Crossroads
In a Nevada courtroom in late 2024, one of the most consequential legal battles in media history unfolded largely in secret. Rupert Murdoch, the 93-year-old architect of a global media empire, sought to restructure his family trust to consolidate control in the hands of his eldest son, Lachlan. Three of Murdoch’s other children—James, Elisabeth, and Prudence—contested the move, arguing it violated the trust’s original terms and their rights as equal beneficiaries.
The outcome of this family dispute will determine not merely who inherits a fortune, but who controls influential media properties that have shaped political discourse across three continents for decades. At stake: Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and newspapers that reach millions daily in the United Kingdom and Australia.
Understanding the Murdoch empire’s influence, its evolution, and its uncertain future requires looking beyond tabloid narratives of family dysfunction to examine the business strategy, political impact, and regulatory challenges that have defined—and constrained—this media dynasty.
Building The Empire: From Adelaide To Global Dominance
The Inheritance And Early Expansion
The Murdoch media story begins not in 1952, as often reported, but in 1954. When Keith Murdoch died in 1952, his son Rupert was completing his studies at Oxford. Upon returning to Australia in 1954, the 23-year-old Rupert took control of News Limited, which consisted primarily of The News, an Adelaide afternoon newspaper, and a small radio station.
What followed was six decades of aggressive expansion characterized by leveraging existing properties to finance acquisitions, entering markets through tabloid newspapers, and building political relationships that facilitated regulatory approvals.
Key Expansion Milestones
Australia (1950s-1960s): Murdoch established dominance in Australian newspapers, acquiring The Daily Mirror (Sydney) and founding The Australian, the country’s only national general-interest broadsheet, in 1964.
United Kingdom (1968-1981): The UK expansion began with acquiring News of the World in 1968, followed by The Sun in 1969. Murdoch transformed The Sun from a failing broadsheet into a tabloid that became Britain’s best-selling newspaper. He later acquired The Times and The Sunday Times in 1981, giving him control spanning Britain’s tabloid and quality newspaper markets.
United States (1973-present): Murdoch’s American ambitions began with acquiring the San Antonio Express-News in 1973. To satisfy FCC regulations requiring broadcast license holders to be U.S. citizens, he became a naturalized American citizen in 1985, relinquishing his Australian citizenship. This enabled the creation of Fox Broadcasting Company in 1986.
The Fox News Launch (1996): Partnering with Republican media consultant Roger Ailes, Murdoch launched Fox News Channel. Ailes, not Murdoch, designed the network’s distinctive approach: the “fair and balanced” slogan juxtaposed with programming that explicitly targeted conservative viewers underserved by existing cable news networks. The strategy proved remarkably successful, with Fox News dominating cable news ratings for most of the past two decades.
The Wall Street Journal (2007): Murdoch’s $5 billion acquisition of Dow Jones & Company, which included The Wall Street Journal, represented his most prestigious American newspaper purchase. The acquisition raised concerns about editorial independence, with the Bancroft family, longtime Dow Jones owners, extracting promises about maintaining editorial separation—promises whose effectiveness remains debated.
The Empire Restructures
Two major corporate restructurings fundamentally changed the Murdoch empire’s shape:
The 2013 Split: Following the phone hacking scandal in the UK, News Corporation split into two separate publicly traded companies:
- 21st Century Fox: Film, television, and entertainment assets
- News Corp: Publishing assets including newspapers, book publisher HarperCollins, and digital real estate platforms
This separation was partly defensive, isolating the scandal-tainted newspaper business from more valuable entertainment assets, and partly strategic, acknowledging the diverging economics of entertainment versus publishing.
The Disney Sale (2019): Murdoch sold most 21st Century Fox assets to Disney for $71.3 billion, including:
- 20th Century Fox film studio
- FX Networks
- National Geographic channels
- Star India
- Fox’s stake in Hulu
The family retained what became Fox Corporation:
- Fox News Channel
- Fox Business Network
- Fox Broadcasting Company
- Fox Sports
- Local television stations
This transaction dramatically reduced the empire’s scope while concentrating remaining assets in news and sports—areas where the Murdoch family’s editorial influence matters most.
Current Holdings
As of 2025, the Murdoch family’s media properties include:
Fox Corporation (Murdoch family controls approximately 39% of voting shares through dual-class structure):
- Fox News Channel
- Fox Business Network
- Fox Broadcasting Company
- 29 local television stations
- Fox Sports networks
- Tubi (free streaming service)
News Corp (Murdoch family controls approximately 39% of voting shares):
- The Wall Street Journal
- New York Post
- The Times and The Sunday Times (UK)
- The Sun (UK)
- The Australian
- Numerous regional Australian newspapers
- HarperCollins Publishers
- Dow Jones & Company
- News UK
- REA Group (digital real estate)
The family no longer controls Sky (sold to Comcast in 2018) or the entertainment assets sold to Disney.
Political Influence: Measuring Media Power
The Complexity Of Media Influence
Assessing the Murdoch empire’s political impact requires distinguishing between several related but distinct phenomena:
Agenda Setting: Murdoch outlets unquestionably influence which topics receive attention. When Fox News dedicates extensive coverage to an issue, it enters mainstream political discourse. When The Australian campaigns on a policy issue, Australian politicians respond.
Opinion Formation: Whether these outlets change minds or attract like-minded audiences remains contested. Academic research suggests complex interactions: outlets simultaneously reflect and reinforce viewer predispositions while shaping intensity and salience of opinions.
Electoral Impact: Claims that Murdoch newspapers “swing” elections are difficult to substantiate. The Sun famously claimed credit for the Conservative Party’s 1992 UK victory with its “It’s The Sun Wot Won It” headline, but academic analyses suggest the causation is more complex—successful newspapers often back likely winners while influencing marginal voters.
Elite Influence: Perhaps most significantly, Murdoch outlets shape elite discourse among politicians, policymakers, and opinion leaders who consume them. This “agenda-setting for agenda-setters” may matter more than direct voter persuasion.
Fox News And American Conservatism
Fox News’s relationship with American conservative politics has evolved through distinct phases:
Phase 1: Conservative Alternative (1996-2008): Under Roger Ailes, Fox News positioned itself as a conservative counterbalance to perceived liberal bias in CNN, MSNBC, and broadcast networks. The strategy succeeded commercially, making Fox the dominant cable news network while creating a powerful platform for conservative voices.
Phase 2: Tea Party Amplification (2009-2015): Following Barack Obama’s election, Fox News became the primary media voice for Tea Party conservatism. Hosts like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity didn’t merely cover the movement—they helped organize it, promoting rallies and providing a platform for emerging conservative activists.
Phase 3: Trump Era Symbiosis (2016-2021): Fox News’s relationship with Donald Trump created an unprecedented feedback loop between a president and a media outlet. Trump regularly cited Fox News coverage in policy decisions, while Fox hosts had direct access to the president. The relationship occasionally fractured—most notably when Fox correctly called Arizona for Biden on election night 2020, triggering fury from Trump and some viewers migrating to further-right outlets like Newsmax and OAN.
Phase 4: Post-Trump Tensions (2021-present): Following January 6th and Trump’s election defeat, Fox News faced a dilemma: maintaining credibility required acknowledging Biden’s victory, but the audience remained loyal to Trump. The network’s handling of election fraud claims led to the most expensive defamation settlement in U.S. history.
The Dominion Settlement: A $787.5 Million Reckoning
In 2023, Fox News settled Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation lawsuit for $787.5 million—an extraordinary sum that revealed internal communications showing Fox executives and hosts privately acknowledged election fraud claims were false while promoting them on air.
Discovery documents showed:
- Rupert Murdoch admitting under oath that some Fox hosts endorsed false election fraud claims
- Internal messages showing hosts and executives knew claims were unfounded
- Evidence that fears of audience loss to competitors influenced editorial decisions
A separate $2.7 billion lawsuit from Smartmatic, another voting technology company, remains pending. These cases represent not merely financial exposure but evidence that commercial pressures can override journalistic standards.
The UK Influence: From King-Making To Scandal
Murdoch’s UK newspapers have played central roles in British political life for decades, though characterizing them as purely conservative oversimplifies their strategy.
Political Pragmatism: While The Sun and News of the World traditionally supported the Conservative Party, they backed Tony Blair’s “New Labour” in 1997, 2001, and 2005. This reflected Murdoch’s pragmatic approach: supporting whoever seemed likely to win and was receptive to his business interests. Blair cultivated Murdoch’s support, flying to Australia in 1995 to address News Corp executives.
Brexit Backing: Murdoch’s UK newspapers championed Brexit, with The Sun urging readers to vote Leave. Post-referendum analysis suggested these newspapers reinforced existing Leave inclinations rather than converting Remain supporters, but helped set the terms of debate.
Phone Hacking Scandal: The revelation that News of the World journalists hacked phones of celebrities, politicians, crime victims, and even murdered schoolgirl Milly Dowler created a crisis that nearly destroyed Murdoch’s UK operations.
The scandal’s timeline and consequences:
- 2005-2006: Initial arrests and convictions, initially portrayed as involving one “rogue reporter”
- 2011: Guardian reporting revealed hacking was widespread, including the Milly Dowler case
- July 2011: News of the World closed after 168 years of publication
- 2011-2012: Leveson Inquiry examined press ethics, with Rupert and James Murdoch testifying before Parliament
- 2011: BSkyB takeover bid withdrawn under pressure
- 2012-2014: Multiple arrests of News International executives and journalists
- 2014: Rebekah Brooks (former CEO of News International) and Andy Coulson (former editor) faced criminal trials; Brooks acquitted, Coulson convicted
- Total cost: Over £1 billion in legal fees, settlements, and remediation
The scandal’s broader impact included:
- James Murdoch’s resignation from News International
- Strengthened UK press regulation
- Damaged relationship with the British establishment
- International reputational harm
Australia: Market Dominance And Democratic Concerns
Murdoch’s Australian operations present perhaps the starkest example of media concentration:
Market Share: News Corp controls approximately 70% of newspaper circulation in Australia’s major cities and publishes the only national general-interest broadsheet, The Australian.
Political Impact: This dominance gives News Corp exceptional influence over Australian political discourse. During the 2013 and 2019 federal elections, coordinated front-page campaigns across News Corp papers attacked Labor Party candidates. Whether this determined outcomes remains debated, but the capacity to set agenda and frame issues is undeniable.
Climate Coverage: News Corp’s Australian newspapers have been particularly criticized for climate change coverage. Analysis by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation found systematic skepticism toward climate science and opposition to climate action policies in News Corp editorial content.
Calls for Reform: In 2021, over 500,000 Australians signed a petition calling for a Royal Commission into media diversity, specifically citing News Corp’s dominance. Former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull have both criticized News Corp’s influence, with Turnbull describing it as having a “monotonous monopoly” that damages democratic discourse.
The Succession Battle: Control Of The Trust
The Family Trust Structure
Understanding the current succession dispute requires understanding the Murdoch Family Trust’s unusual structure:
When Rupert Murdoch created the trust decades ago, he established two classes of shares:
- Voting shares: Provide control over corporate decisions
- Non-voting shares: Provide economic benefits but no control
Rupert currently holds the voting shares and has the power to appoint himself successor trustee. Upon his death or incapacity, the trust’s terms originally granted equal voting control to four of his six children: Prudence (from his first marriage to Patricia Booker), Elisabeth, Lachlan, and James (from his second marriage to Anna Torv).
Two younger children from Rupert’s third marriage to Wendi Deng—Grace and Chloe—are economic beneficiaries but not voting beneficiaries, a distinction that has generated its own tensions.
The Nevada Proceedings
In 2024, Rupert Murdoch petitioned a Nevada court to modify the trust to grant Lachlan sole control of the voting shares. The legal theory: this serves all beneficiaries’ interests by preserving the conservative editorial direction that maintains the properties’ commercial value.
The case was heard in Reno, Nevada—where the trust is based for favorable trust law—in September 2024, with proceedings conducted largely in secret at the family’s request.
Rupert’s Argument:
- Lachlan shares his vision for maintaining conservative editorial direction
- This direction is essential to Fox News’s commercial success
- Divided control could lead to editorial shifts that damage brand value
- All beneficiaries, even those losing voting control, benefit economically from preserving this approach
The Siblings’ Counter-Argument:
- The trust’s terms guaranteed them equal voting rights
- Rupert is attempting retroactive changes that violate the trust’s purpose
- They have legitimate differences about editorial direction and company strategy
- The change represents one child being favored over others in violation of fiduciary duties
In December 2024, a Nevada commissioner ruled against Rupert Murdoch, finding the proposed changes were in “bad faith” and violated Nevada trust law. Murdoch has indicated he will appeal.
The Implications Of Different Outcomes
If Lachlan Gains Sole Control:
- Fox News likely maintains current editorial direction and conservative positioning
- Potential for more explicit political alignment with Republican causes
- News Corp newspapers likely continue current approaches
- Siblings may seek to sell their economic interests, requiring complex valuations
If Equal Control Remains:
- James Murdoch’s known disagreements with Fox News editorial approach could create internal tensions
- Possibility of strategic shifts at Fox News toward more centrist positioning
- Corporate governance complexity with four equal votes creating potential deadlock
- Compromise decisions that leave no faction satisfied
If Assets Are Divided or Sold:
- Some analysts suggest inability to reach agreement could force asset sales
- Potential buyers include conservative investors wanting to maintain Fox News’s direction
- Alternative scenario: division of assets with different siblings controlling different properties
- This would end the unified Murdoch empire but might satisfy competing visions
The Siblings’ Divergent Paths
Lachlan Murdoch (born 1971):
- Co-chairman of News Corp
- Executive chairman and CEO of Fox Corporation
- Generally shares his father’s conservative political orientation
- Less charismatic than his father but trusted to maintain the business model
- Resides primarily in Australia but oversees U.S. operations
James Murdoch (born 1972):
- Formerly CEO of 21st Century Fox and chairman of Sky plc
- Resigned from News Corp board in July 2020, citing “disagreements over certain editorial content published by the Company’s news outlets and certain other strategic decisions”
- Has become openly critical of Fox News, particularly regarding climate change denial and election fraud coverage
- Invested in businesses focused on sustainability and opposed to his family’s political positioning
- Married to Kathryn Murdoch, who has funded Democratic candidates and progressive causes
Elisabeth Murdoch (born 1968):
- Successful television production executive in her own right, founding Shine Group (sold to 21st Century Fox in 2011 for £415 million)
- Has largely remained separate from family business politics
- Less publicly vocal than James but reportedly shares concerns about editorial direction
- Has focused on her own media ventures rather than seeking control of family empire
Prudence Murdoch (born 1958):
- Eldest child from Rupert’s first marriage
- Lowest profile of the four voting beneficiaries
- Has worked in the family business but less centrally than her half-siblings
- Her position in the current dispute has remained relatively private
Regulatory Challenges And Market Power
Cross-National Regulatory Complexity
The Murdoch empire’s global span means it operates under multiple regulatory regimes with different approaches to media ownership and content regulation:
United States:
- FCC regulations limit ownership of broadcast stations in single markets
- No restrictions on cable news networks like Fox News
- First Amendment protections make content regulation minimal
- Defamation law provides some accountability but requires proving actual malice for public figures
- Dominion settlement shows this standard can occasionally be met
United Kingdom:
- Ofcom regulates broadcast content with impartiality requirements
- “Fit and proper person” test can block ownership changes
- Press complaints system (IPSO) is self-regulatory
- Concentration concerns can block mergers (as with BSkyB bid)
- Post-Leveson, heightened sensitivity to press ethics violations
Australia:
- ACMA oversees broadcasting
- Media ownership rules historically permissive, allowing News Corp dominance
- Cross-media ownership restrictions have been loosened over time
- No effective constraint on News Corp’s newspaper concentration
- Public broadcaster ABC provides alternative voice but faces budget pressure
The Failed BSkyB Acquisition
One of Murdoch’s most significant strategic setbacks came in 2010-2011 when News Corp sought full control of British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB), in which it held a 39% stake.
The Bid: News Corp offered £12 billion for remaining BSkyB shares, seeking full ownership of Britain’s dominant satellite television platform.
Opposition: Media plurality concerns led to extensive regulatory scrutiny. Critics argued giving Murdoch control of BSkyB plus existing newspapers would concentrate too much media power in one entity.
The Scandal’s Impact: As the phone hacking scandal escalated, political support for the deal evaporated. In July 2011, News Corp withdrew the bid, unable to overcome public and political opposition.
Long-term Consequences:
- Murdoch never regained full control of Sky
- In 2018, Comcast acquired Sky for £30.6 billion, outbidding 21st Century Fox
- The failure represented a rare major strategic defeat for Murdoch
- Demonstrated that political and reputational damage can block otherwise commercially logical transactions
The Digital Challenge: Legacy Media In Transition
The Economics Of Decline
Like all legacy media companies, the Murdoch empire faces structural challenges from digital transformation:
Print Advertising Collapse: Classified advertising—once newspapers’ profit engine—migrated to Craigslist, Indeed, Zillow, and other specialized platforms. Display advertising followed, with Google and Facebook capturing the majority of digital ad spending.
Circulation Decline: Print newspaper circulation has fallen precipitously across all markets. The Sun’s daily circulation peaked above 4 million in the 1990s; by 2024, it had fallen below 1.2 million. The Wall Street Journal has maintained circulation better than most through business reader loyalty, but faces long-term challenges.
Cost Structure Challenges: Newspaper organizations built for print-era economics struggle with digital business models that generate lower revenue per reader while requiring continued investment in journalism and technology.
Digital Adaptation Strategies
News Corp has pursued multiple strategies to address digital economics:
Paywalls: The Wall Street Journal maintains one of the most successful newspaper paywalls, with over 3 million digital subscribers. The Times of London has over 500,000 subscribers. However, The Sun and New York Post remain largely free online, reflecting different business models.
Platform Battles: News Corp has aggressively confronted Facebook and Google over traffic and revenue, arguing platforms profit from news content without adequately compensating publishers. Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code, which requires platforms to negotiate payment with news publishers, was heavily lobbied for by News Corp.
Digital Pure-Plays: Investments in digital properties like Dow Jones’s Barron’s Group and real estate platform REA Group (in which News Corp holds 61%) represent attempts to build digital businesses with better economics than legacy newspapers.
Television Streaming: Fox launched Tubi, a free ad-supported streaming service, in recognition that traditional pay-TV distribution faces cord-cutting challenges. However, Fox News remains dependent on lucrative cable carriage fees that could decline as streaming replaces cable.
The Sustainability Question
Whether News Corp’s newspaper business remains viable long-term is increasingly questioned:
Financial Performance: News Corp’s News Media segment (newspapers) generated 1.4 billion in revenue in Q1 2024, down from prior years, with operating income of 84 million—modest margins that might not justify continued operation if decline accelerates.
Strategic Alternatives: Some analysts suggest News Corp might eventually exit newspapers entirely, selling properties to buyers viewing them as political influence mechanisms rather than profit centers. This would mark an ironic end to the business that began the empire.
The Journal Exception: The Wall Street Journal’s unique position as essential business intelligence may allow it to sustain itself even as general-interest newspapers struggle. Its subscriber base and pricing power differentiate it from troubled regional papers.
Controversies And Accountability
Climate Change Coverage
News Corp outlets, particularly in Australia and at Fox News, have been extensively documented sources of climate change skepticism and opposition to climate action policies.
The Pattern: Analysis by academic researchers and media monitoring organizations has found:
- Disproportionate coverage given to climate science skeptics
- Opinion content opposing carbon pricing and renewable energy policies
- Minimization of scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change
- Emphasis on costs of climate action over costs of inaction
Commercial Motivations: Critics note fossil fuel industry advertising in News Corp papers and alignment between climate skepticism and conservative political positions the outlets support.
James Murdoch’s Criticism: This issue specifically drove James Murdoch’s resignation from the News Corp board, with his resignation letter citing “disagreements over certain editorial content” widely understood to reference climate coverage.
Counterarguments: Defenders note that news and opinion are separate, that opinion pages present diverse views, and that The Wall Street Journal’s news coverage of climate differs from its editorial page. However, readers often don’t clearly distinguish news from opinion content.
Election Coverage And Misinformation
Beyond the Dominion case, Murdoch outlets have faced criticism for election coverage across multiple countries:
United States:
- Fox News’s promotion of election fraud claims after 2020
- Earlier controversies about primary debate moderation and candidate treatment
- Documented coordination between network and Trump campaign/administration
United Kingdom:
- Aggressive anti-Labour coverage in 2015 and 2019 elections
- Brexit referendum coverage criticized for Leave bias
- Historical examples like 1992 “demon eyes” anti-Blair campaign
Australia:
- Coordinated front-page attacks on Labor candidates in 2013 and 2019
- Climate policy coverage framed to benefit conservative Coalition
The Line Between Advocacy and Misinformation: Media outlets have historically endorsed candidates and advocated positions. The question is whether Murdoch outlets cross from advocacy to misinformation—promoting factually false claims to serve political ends. The Dominion case provided documented evidence that this occurred regarding election fraud claims.
Workplace Culture And Harassment
The Fox News sexual harassment scandals revealed a workplace culture that enabled predatory behavior:
Roger Ailes (2016): Multiple women accused Fox News Chairman and CEO Ailes of sexual harassment spanning decades. The company paid 20 million to settle Gretchen Carlson’s lawsuit. Ailes resigned but received a 40 million exit package. He died in 2017.
Bill O’Reilly (2017): The New York Times revealed Fox News and O’Reilly had paid approximately $13 million to settle harassment claims from multiple women. O’Reilly was fired, though he denied wrongdoing.
Systemic Issues: The scandals revealed institutional failures in addressing harassment complaints and protecting accusers. Settlements with non-disclosure agreements allowed behavior to continue while keeping it hidden from public and employees.
Reforms: Fox News implemented new harassment training and reporting procedures, but critics questioned whether cultural change was genuine or performative.
The Worker And Journalist Perspective
Editorial Independence Concerns
Journalists who have worked for Murdoch outlets report varying experiences regarding editorial independence:
The Wall Street Journal: When Murdoch acquired Dow Jones, staff concerns about editorial independence led to the creation of a Special Committee to protect news operations from business-side and owner interference. Former Journal journalists report this structure has provided genuine protection for news content, though the editorial page operates independently with a consistently conservative orientation.
The Times of London: Reports of editorial interference are more mixed, with some former editors and journalists describing pressure to soften coverage of News Corp business interests and align with owner preferences on political matters.
Fox News: Given the network’s explicit ideological positioning, questions of editorial independence differ from traditional journalism contexts. Hosts and contributors are hired specifically for viewpoints aligning with the network’s brand. However, the Dominion case revealed instances where journalists’ reporting was overridden by executive decisions for commercial reasons—a different kind of independence violation.
Staff Departures And Dissent
Notable departures from Murdoch outlets often relate to editorial direction concerns:
- Andrew Neil left The Sunday Times and later the BBC after disagreements about editorial approach
- Multiple Fox News personalities have departed citing concerns about editorial direction or workplace culture
- Australian journalists have occasionally publicly criticized their employer’s climate coverage or political positioning
- Wall Street Journal staff have periodically protested editorial page positions, particularly regarding climate change
Journalists’ Dilemma
Talented journalists face difficult calculations in working for Murdoch outlets:
Advantages:
- Significant resources for reporting and investigation
- Wide audiences and impact
- Competitive compensation
- Professional prestige (particularly for WSJ)
Costs:
- Association with controversial editorial positions
- Potential limits on coverage of certain topics
- Ethical questions about organization’s broader impact
- Career implications if organization’s reputation further damaged
Investment Analysis: Value And Risk
Current Valuation
As of late 2024:
Fox Corporation: Market capitalization approximately $20 billion
- Profitable, generating strong cash flow from carriage fees
- Fox News remains cable news ratings leader
- Concerns about cord-cutting impact on long-term revenue
- NFL rights provide valuable sports programming
News Corp: Market capitalization approximately $15 billion
- Conglomerate structure may create valuation discount
- Digital subscriptions at WSJ provide growth story
- Australian newspapers face structural decline
- Book publishing (HarperCollins) provides diversification
- REA Group (digital real estate) represents valuable Australian asset
Investment Thesis—Bull Case
For Fox Corporation:
- Fox News’s dominant position in conservative media ecosystem seems durable despite competition
- NFL and other sports rights provide must-have content in streaming era
- Free cash flow generation supports dividends and buybacks
- Tubi’s growth provides streaming presence without content cost burden
- Family control ensures strategic consistency
For News Corp:
- WSJ’s subscriber growth demonstrates premium journalism can work digitally
- Australian asset portfolio undervalued by market
- Book publishing provides steady cash flows
- Sum-of-parts worth more than current valuation suggests
- Potential for restructuring to unlock value
Investment Thesis—Bear Case
For Fox Corporation:
- Cable cord-cutting threatens carriage fee revenue model
- Dominion settlement and ongoing Smartmatic litigation create legal risk
- Succession uncertainty creates governance concerns
- Younger demographics less engaged with Fox News
- Regulatory risk if political winds shift
- Advertiser concerns about controversial content
- Competition from digital-native conservative outlets
For News Corp:
- Structural decline of newspaper business likely irreversible
- Australian newspapers particularly challenged
- Conglomerate discount reflects complexity and lack of strategic coherence
- Succession battle creates uncertainty
- Digital transition at newspapers may never achieve profitability of print era
- Platform power (Google, Facebook) limits bargaining power
Activist Investor Considerations
The succession battle has attracted attention from investors interested in corporate governance:
- Dual-class share structure entrenches family control regardless of economic ownership
- Minority shareholders have limited influence over strategic direction
- Succession dispute could create opportunity if resolution involves restructuring
- Some investors may prefer clarity even if it means continued family control under Lachlan
The Future: Scenarios And Implications
Scenario 1: Lachlan’s Consolidated Control
How This Happens: Rupert wins on appeal or negotiates settlement giving Lachlan voting control.
Likely Outcomes:
- Fox News maintains current editorial direction, possibly becoming more explicitly partisan
- James, Elisabeth, and Prudence might seek to sell economic interests
- This could trigger complex valuation negotiations
- Editorial consistency might improve business performance but limit strategic flexibility
- Political influence continues concentrated in conservative direction
Probability: Moderate—requires winning legal battle but Rupert has resources and determination.
Scenario 2: Equal Control And Internal Tension
How This Happens: Courts uphold original trust terms; four siblings maintain equal votes.
Likely Outcomes:
- Corporate governance challenges requiring consensus among four parties with different visions
- Potential strategic paralysis on major decisions
- James possibly pushing for editorial moderation at Fox News
- Tension between maximizing profit and serving political/ideological goals
- Possible drift toward more centrist positioning as compromise between siblings
Probability: Moderate to high—current legal ruling supports this, though appeals remain.
Scenario 3: Asset Division Or Sale
How This Happens: Siblings cannot reach working agreement; decide to divide or sell assets.
Likely Outcomes:
- Fox News sold to conservative investor group committed to maintaining direction
- News Corp newspapers potentially sold to different buyers
- WSJ might attract bidders valuing business intelligence asset
- Family influence ends, replaced by new ownership with different priorities
- One chapter of media history closes
Probability: Lower—family financial incentives favor keeping properties, and finding buyers for all assets would be complex.
Scenario 4: Lachlan’s Stewardship Disappoints
How This Happens: Lachlan gains control but proves less effective than Rupert at balancing business and politics.
Likely Outcomes:
- Fox News faces growing competition from digital-native conservative media
- Ratings decline and advertiser concerns reduce profitability
- Legal issues from content decisions continue (e.g., Smartmatic lawsuit)
- Business performance eventually forces rethinking of strategy
- Family legacy tarnished by mismanagement
Probability: Moderate—Lachlan lacks his father’s instincts and operates in more challenging environment.
Implications For Democracy And Media
The Media Concentration Question
The Murdoch case study illuminates broader questions about media ownership concentration:
Arguments That Concentration Is Harmful:
- Reduces diversity of perspectives available to public
- Gives individual owners disproportionate political influence
- Creates conflicts between journalistic integrity and owner interests
- Allows coordinated campaigns across multiple outlets
- Reduces accountability when single owner controls multiple publications
Arguments That Concentration Is Overstated:
- Digital media provides virtually unlimited alternative sources
- Audiences self-select into preferred media environments regardless of ownership
- Single-owner operations can invest in journalism more than fragmented competitors
- Editorial consistency across properties creates clear brand identity
- Market forces discipline owners whose outlets become too ideological
The Evidence: Research suggests both dynamics operate. Media concentration matters more for agenda-setting (what people think about) than opinion formation (what people think). Digital fragmentation reduces any single outlet’s power while creating echo chambers with different problems.
Lessons From The Murdoch Empire
The Murdoch family’s media influence offers insights applicable beyond this specific case:
Business Model Matters: Murdoch succeeded partly by recognizing that explicitly ideological media can build loyal audiences willing to pay premium prices or deliver valuable demographics to advertisers. This business insight—controversial content can be profitable—has been emulated across the political spectrum.
Political Access Enables Business Success: Murdoch’s cultivation of political leaders across parties and countries facilitated regulatory approvals essential to expansion. The BSkyB failure showed limits to this strategy when reputational damage outweighed political relationships.
Family Control Has Advantages and Disadvantages: Concentrated control enabled long-term strategic vision and bold moves that public company management might avoid. However, it also enabled decisions driven by owner ideology rather than shareholder value and created succession challenges threatening the enterprise.
Legacy Media Faces Existential Challenges: Even the most successful media empire cannot avoid fundamental economic shifts from print to digital. The question is whether adaptation is possible or whether legacy outlets simply decline gradually.
Accountability Mechanisms Sometimes Work: The phone hacking scandal and Dominion settlement show that legal and market accountability can occasionally constrain even powerful media organizations, though often only after substantial harm occurs.
Conclusion: Power In Transition
The Murdoch media empire stands at an inflection point. After seven decades of expansion and influence, the dynasty faces questions about both succession and sustainability.
The legal battle over the family trust is about more than inheritance—it’s about whether conservative media’s most powerful platform maintains ideological consistency or evolves in response to changing family views and market pressures. The outcome will influence American and global politics for years to come.
Beyond the succession drama, the empire confronts challenges facing all legacy media: digital disruption, generational change in audience, political polarization, and platform power. The strategies that built dominance in the 20th century may not sustain it through the 21st.
For media observers, policymakers, and citizens, the Murdoch case offers a lens for examining broader questions: How much media concentration is compatible with democratic health? How should societies balance press freedom against accountability for harmful content? What business models can sustain quality journalism in digital era? How do we preserve diverse viewpoints while constraining misinformation?
These questions lack simple answers. The Murdoch story demonstrates both media’s power to shape society and the limits of that power. Rupert Murdoch built an empire by understanding audiences, cultivating politicians, taking risks, and relentlessly pursuing growth. Whether that empire survives him as an integrated whole or fragments into pieces may matter less than the broader transformation of media power his career both exemplified and accelerated.
One certainty: whoever controls Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and major UK and Australian newspapers will wield substantial influence. Understanding that influence—its sources, its mechanisms, its limits—remains essential for anyone seeking to understand contemporary politics and media.
The Broader Media Landscape: Competition And Alternatives
The Rise Of Digital-Native Conservative Media
Fox News no longer monopolizes conservative media attention. Digital-native outlets have emerged that compete for the same audience:
Newsmax and OAN: During the 2020 election aftermath, these further-right outlets gained viewers as some Fox News audience members sought coverage more aligned with election fraud claims. While their viewership remains smaller than Fox’s, they demonstrated that the conservative media market can fragment.
The Daily Wire: Ben Shapiro’s media company has built a substantial digital presence through podcasts, YouTube, and subscription streaming. With multiple popular hosts and original content, it reaches younger conservatives who consume media differently than cable news viewers.
Podcasts and Digital Platforms: Conservative voices from Joe Rogan to Tucker Carlson (post-Fox) to countless smaller creators reach audiences through digital platforms. This distribution democratization reduces any single outlet’s gatekeeping power.
Social Media Direct Communication: Politicians and activists increasingly communicate directly with supporters via Twitter/X, Truth Social, and other platforms, reducing dependence on traditional media intermediaries—including Fox News.
Implications for Fox: The network faces pressure from two directions. Moving too far right risks mainstream advertisers and credibility; staying too moderate risks audience defection to competitors. This tension will intensify regardless of who controls the company.
Liberal And Centrist Alternatives
The conservative focus of Murdoch properties exists within a broader media ecosystem:
Broadcast and Cable: NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, and MSNBC provide alternative perspectives, though with declining viewership as audiences fragment.
Digital Publications: The New York Times, Washington Post, The Atlantic, and numerous others offer center-left perspectives with growing digital subscriber bases.
Public Broadcasting: BBC, ABC (Australia), PBS, and NPR provide alternatives funded differently than commercial media, though facing their own political pressures and budget constraints.
The Filter Bubble Question: Rather than monolithic media control, the current environment features audience self-selection into preferred information ecosystems. This creates different challenges—polarization, echo chambers, difficulty establishing shared facts—but limits any single outlet’s power to control the overall narrative.
The Journalist’s Ethical Calculus
Working Within The System
Journalists at Murdoch outlets face complex ethical considerations that illuminate broader questions about media work:
The Separation Argument: Many journalists maintain that quality news reporting can coexist with controversial opinion content. Wall Street Journal news reporters argue their work maintains professional standards regardless of editorial page positions. This separation is real in some contexts but permeable in others—media brands affect how reporting is perceived, and commercial pressures can influence news decisions.
The Complicity Question: By lending professional credibility to organizations that publish controversial content, do journalists enable harm? Or do they serve the public by providing quality information within imperfect institutions? Individual journalists answer this differently based on their specific roles and tolerance for institutional compromise.
The Alternative Options: Talented journalists could work elsewhere, but all major media organizations face ethical compromises. Is working for Murdoch outlets qualitatively different from working for outlets with different ownership issues? What about publications dependent on tech billionaire funding or those facing commercial pressures toward sensationalism?
The Impact Position: Some journalists believe they serve the public better by maintaining professional standards within influential conservative outlets than by abandoning those outlets to purely ideological actors. This “boring from within” strategy assumes gradual positive influence is possible.
Case Study: The Wall Street Journal
The Journal represents an instructive case study in navigating these tensions:
Maintained Reputation: Despite ownership concerns, the WSJ’s news operation has largely preserved its reputation for accurate, thorough business journalism. It continues to win Pulitzer Prizes and break important stories.
Editorial Page Separation: The stark divide between news and opinion at the Journal is more pronounced than at most publications. News reporters have occasionally publicly criticized editorial page positions, particularly on climate change.
Reader Understanding: However, research suggests many readers don’t clearly distinguish news from opinion content, and the Journal’s brand encompasses both. When the editorial page takes controversial positions, it potentially affects perception of news coverage.
Commercial Success: The Journal’s successful digital subscription model demonstrates that quality journalism can attract paying audiences even in challenging environments. This success may insulate it from some commercial pressures affecting other publications.
The Bargain: Journal journalists accept that they work for an organization where the opinion side operates according to principles they may find problematic, in exchange for resources, reach, and professional prestige in their news work. Whether this bargain serves journalism and society remains debated.
International Comparisons: Media Ownership Elsewhere
Different Models, Different Problems
The Murdoch empire’s existence reflects specific regulatory and market conditions. Other countries demonstrate alternative approaches:
Germany: Concentrated family ownership exists (Bertelsmann, Springer), but strict media regulations and strong public broadcasting provide counterweights.
France: Government involvement in media ownership historically high, creating different conflicts between political power and press freedom.
Scandinavia: Strong public broadcasting traditions and subsidies for newspaper diversity have created media landscapes less dominated by commercial imperatives or single owners.
The United Kingdom: Despite Murdoch’s influence, the BBC’s unique position as publicly funded, editorially independent broadcaster provides an alternative voice. However, political pressure on BBC funding and editorial independence has intensified.
The Trade-offs: Each system involves compromises. Public broadcasting risks political pressure; commercial media risks sensationalism and concentration; subsidies risk government influence. No perfect model exists.
The American Exceptionalism Question
U.S. media regulation is notably permissive by international standards, reflecting First Amendment traditions and preference for market solutions:
Advantages: Minimal content regulation protects press freedom and allows diverse voices; market competition theoretically disciplines bias; constitutional protections prevent government censorship.
Disadvantages: Concentration proceeds largely unchecked; commercial pressures drive toward sensationalism; misinformation faces few constraints; resource-intensive journalism struggles to find sustainable funding.
The Murdoch Success: Murdoch’s American success partly reflects regulatory permissiveness. The same concentration wouldn’t be possible in many European markets. Whether American exceptionalism here serves democracy remains contested.
Technology’s Transformation Of Media Power
The Platform Shift
Perhaps the most significant change affecting Murdoch-era media power is the shift from broadcast/print distribution to platform-mediated distribution:
Facebook, Google, Twitter/X: These platforms now intermediate between publishers and audiences. They determine what content reaches users through algorithms optimized for engagement rather than journalistic merit.
The Revenue Capture: Platforms capture most digital advertising revenue, starving traditional publishers of resources. News Corp’s battles with platforms over revenue sharing reflect this fundamental shift in media economics.
The Amplification Effect: Platforms amplify whatever content generates engagement—often outrage, fear, or partisan reinforcement. This can amplify Murdoch outlets’ controversial content, but also undermines any single outlet’s control of narrative.
The Disintermediation: Politicians and activists communicate directly with audiences via social platforms, reducing the gatekeeping power traditional media once held. Trump’s Twitter use exemplified how political figures can bypass media filters.
Artificial Intelligence And Media’s Future
Emerging AI technologies will further transform media landscapes in ways affecting legacy outlets:
Content Generation: AI can produce basic news articles, potentially reducing journalism costs but also employment and potentially quality. News Corp and other publishers are negotiating with AI companies over content licensing and compensation.
Personalization: AI-driven content recommendation can create increasingly customized information experiences, further fragmenting shared reality.
Verification Challenges: AI-generated deepfakes and sophisticated misinformation will make truth verification more difficult, potentially increasing value of trusted brands—or enabling conspiracy theories to flourish.
Business Model Disruption: If AI can summarize or synthesize news from multiple sources, users may see less need to visit original publishers. This could further undermine already challenged newspaper economics.
The Murdoch Empire’s Response: Legacy media organizations including Murdoch properties are experimenting with AI for content production and personalization. Whether they can successfully adapt remains uncertain.
Regulatory Reform: Proposals And Prospects
Calls For Media Ownership Reform
The Murdoch empire’s influence has prompted various regulatory reform proposals:
Ownership Caps: Limiting total market share any entity can control in given market. Australia’s rules are looser than many countries’; tightening would directly affect News Corp.
Cross-Ownership Restrictions: Preventing single entities from owning both newspapers and broadcast stations in same market. U.S. had such rules but relaxed them; some advocate restoration.
Transparency Requirements: Mandating disclosure of ownership, funding sources, and editorial processes. This could help audiences evaluate media bias.
Platform Regulation: Requiring Facebook, Google, et al. to compensate news publishers for content use. Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code represents one model; results remain mixed.
Public Interest Test: Subjecting media acquisitions to explicit public interest review beyond commercial competition concerns. UK has such provisions; U.S. does not.
The Political Economy Of Reform
Media regulation faces inherent challenges:
Industry Opposition: Existing media companies typically oppose regulations constraining their operations. Murdoch outlets strongly oppose ownership limits.
Political Calculation: Politicians depend on media coverage for electoral success. Alienating powerful media owners carries risk, creating reluctance to support regulation.
Free Speech Concerns: In the U.S., First Amendment considerations limit content regulation and make some ownership restrictions legally vulnerable.
Effectiveness Questions: Even if adopted, regulations can be evaded or circumvented. Media companies employ sophisticated legal and lobbying operations to protect interests.
International Coordination: Media operates globally; national regulations can be undermined by international operations or digital distribution.
The Likely Outcome: Significant media ownership reform in the U.S. seems unlikely absent major political realignment. Australia and UK may see incremental changes. The status quo, with minor modifications, will likely persist.
Lessons For Media Consumers
Critical Media Literacy
Understanding the Murdoch empire’s influence offers broader lessons for media consumption:
Recognize Ownership: Knowing who owns media outlets helps understand potential biases and conflicts of interest. Ownership doesn’t determine content mechanistically, but it shapes incentives and priorities.
Distinguish News From Opinion: Many media consumers struggle to differentiate reporting from commentary. Understanding this distinction is essential for evaluating information quality.
Seek Multiple Sources: Relying on single media source—whether Murdoch-owned or otherwise—creates vulnerability to that source’s biases and blind spots. Diverse information diet improves understanding.
Understand Business Models: How outlets make money affects what they cover and how. Subscription-based outlets serve paying readers; ad-supported outlets serve advertisers; outlets dependent on engagement serve algorithms.
Evaluate Evidence: Quality journalism cites sources, provides evidence, and acknowledges uncertainty. Opinion masquerading as news often lacks these features.
Consider Political Economy: Media outlets operate within political and economic contexts that shape their coverage. Understanding these contexts improves ability to interpret content critically.
The Responsibility Of Citizenship
In democratic societies, media literacy isn’t optional—it’s a citizenship requirement:
Active Rather Than Passive: Consuming media critically requires effort and engagement, not passive reception of information.
Supporting Quality Journalism: If societies want media that serves public interest rather than pure commercial incentives, supporting such journalism through subscriptions, donations, or public funding is necessary.
Demanding Accountability: Consumers can pressure media organizations through subscription decisions, advertiser boycotts, and public criticism. The Dominion case showed accountability is possible.
Participating In Democratic Discourse: Rather than retreating into preferred echo chambers, citizens serve democracy by engaging across perspectives—not accepting all views as equally valid, but understanding different viewpoints.
Final Assessment: A Complex Legacy
Evaluating the Murdoch family’s impact requires holding multiple truths simultaneously:
Commercial Achievement: Rupert Murdoch built one of history’s most successful media empires through business acumen, strategic vision, and willingness to take risks. This achievement is undeniable regardless of one’s political views.
Political Influence: Murdoch outlets have shaped political discourse across three continents for decades. This influence reflects both the quality that attracted audiences and the strategic deployment of media power toward ideological ends.
Democratic Concerns: The concentration of media influence in one family raises legitimate concerns about democratic health. Whether this concentration is uniquely problematic or simply one example of broader issues regarding wealth and power is debatable.
Journalistic Contributions: Murdoch organizations have produced important journalism alongside controversial opinion content. The Wall Street Journal’s investigative reporting, The Times’s international coverage, and The Australian’s business journalism represent genuine contributions.
Institutional Damage: The phone hacking scandal, Dominion settlement, and various other controversies have damaged public trust in journalism broadly, beyond just Murdoch outlets. This institutional harm extends beyond immediate victims.
Evolving Relevance: The empire’s influence may be peaking as digital transformation and generational change reduce traditional media’s power. Future historians may see the Murdoch era as the culmination of 20th-century media concentration before digital fragmentation.
Family Complexity: The succession battle reveals that “the Murdochs” are not monolithic. Differing views within the family about media’s role and responsibility suggest the empire’s future may differ from its past.
Systemic Questions: The Murdoch case illuminates broader questions about capitalism, democracy, and media. Individual families come and go; structural forces shaping media ownership, business models, and political influence persist.
Epilogue: Beyond The Murdochs
Whatever the succession battle’s outcome, media’s transformation will continue regardless of who controls Fox News or The Wall Street Journal:
Technology Will Continue Disrupting: AI, streaming, social platforms, and technologies not yet imagined will reshape how information is created, distributed, and consumed.
Generational Change Will Accelerate: Younger audiences consume media differently than older generations, through different platforms and with different expectations. Media empires built for one era may not transfer to the next.
Political Polarization May Intensify or Moderate: Whether societies become more divided or find ways to bridge differences will shape media’s role and business models.
Economic Models Will Evolve: The subscription renaissance at publications like The New York Times and Wall Street Journal suggests some paths to sustainability. Whether this extends broadly remains uncertain.
Regulatory Approaches Will Adapt: As platforms’ power becomes undeniable and misinformation’s harms accumulate, democracies will experiment with new regulatory approaches—some successful, others counterproductive.
New Power Centers Will Emerge: Today’s tech billionaires—Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg—wield media influence differently than Murdoch but perhaps as consequentially. Understanding tomorrow’s media power requires looking beyond today’s empires.
The Murdoch story is not finished, but it may be entering its final chapter. What comes next—for the family, for conservative media, for journalism broadly—remains uncertain. That uncertainty itself may be the most important lesson: media power is always contingent, always contested, always evolving. The structures that seem permanent are temporary; the dynamics that seem novel are cyclical; the concerns that seem unique are perennial.
For citizens navigating information environments more complex than any previous generation faced, the Murdoch case offers both warning and opportunity: warning about concentrated power’s risks, opportunity to build media systems serving democracy better. Whether we seize that opportunity depends not on any single family’s choices, but on collective decisions about the media we support, the accountability we demand, and the information ecosystem we create through millions of individual choices.
The future of media, like democracy itself, is not predetermined. It’s being written daily by journalists, entrepreneurs, citizens, and yes, powerful families like the Murdochs. Understanding their influence is essential, but remembering our own agency in shaping media’s evolution may matter more.
